Gears of War: E-Day is the best-rated game in the series in a long time. But excellence is no predictor of market success these days, especially for a platform with as many competing business models as Xbox. According to data firm Alinea Analytics, Microsoft’s newest console-exclusive shooter sold just 320,000 copies in its first week, but had 1.7 million players on Game Pass. So is that good or bad for The Coalition, one of many Xbox game teams currently worried about future cuts?
“Gears of War: E-Day has sold 230K copies,” Alinea’s Rhys Elliott posted on X on October 9, a week after the game’s early-access launch period began. “Steam accounts for 168K of those, with Xbox (console and PC) selling 62K. But there’s more to this story, as Xbox makes up the bulk of revenue (almost three-quarters).”
He argues that Game Pass is cannibalizing much of the premium revenue fans might have spent on the game, without seemingly driving massive adoption from the rest of the subscriber-base, or some big uptick in the number of new sign-ups.
Gears of War: E-Day has sold 230K copies (@alineaanalytics estimates).
Steam accounts for 168K of those, with Xbox (console and PC) selling 62K. But there’s more to this story, as Xbox makes up the bulk of revenue (almost three-quarters).
On Xbox, Game Pass is cannibalising… pic.twitter.com/EH6GHFngYP
— Rhys Elliott (@superhys) October 9, 2026
According to Alinea’s estimates, none of which have been corroborated by Microsoft, there were 1.7 million players who accessed E-Day via a Game Pass subscription instead of buying it, 722,000 of whom paid $30 for the Premium Edition upgrade to access the game early. Meanwhile, the game is estimated to have sold 230,000 copies so far, 168,000 of which were on Steam. That comes to roughly $37 million in revenue so far, $26 million of which came from players on Xbox.
“In a world without day-one Game Pass, many of these folks would have bought E-Day at $70,” Elliott wrote. “They paid $30 for five days early access to something they don’t own. Xbox is, in effect, charging its most valuable customers the least, based on a hangover from a tried-and-exhausted strategy from a previous administration.”
He notes that if the business model isn’t working for a game of the quality level that Gears of War: E-Day is at, then there clearly must be an issue with the business model. A cheap, ad-supported tier of Game Pass wouldn’t solve the problem of hardcore fans paying the least for access to a new exclusive, but increasing the price of day-one access might.
The logical conclusion, based on Elliot’s estimates and analysis, is that Microsoft will have to remove day-one first-party releases from the service, just as it announced it would do earlier this year with Call of Duty.
