One theory claims that the next Fallout game will give its post-apocalyptic golden era treatment to the Bay Area, and that presents a wealth of opportunity for Bethesda. Culturally, historically, geographically, and architecturally, San Francisco is a strong candidate for Fallout 5‘s setting, and a true-to-life, era-appropriate military experiment undergone in that area seems like just the sort of corporate contracted shenanigans that Vault-Tec would be involved with.
In 2022, Todd Howard reaffirmed the existence of Fallout 5. Set as Bethesda’s next major title after Elder Scrolls 6, its projected release window is still a ways off. There is hope, however, that the timeline may now be abridged, with Microsoft’s shifting priorities following the acquisition of Bethesda. Given the runaway success of Amazon Prime’s Fallout series along with the renewed relevence of Fallout 4 after its next-gen update, the incentive for Microsoft to dump resources into spurring work on Fallout 5 grows by the day.
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Fallout 5 May Take Players Back to the West Coast
Based on some dialog from Conrad Kellogg in Fallout 4, bolstered by the IP’s vast reservoir of lore about the New California Republic, and given momentum by various internet rumblings, the current leading candidate for Fallout 5‘s setting is San Francisco. From the Golden Gate Bridge and Coit Tower, to its expansive Fisherman’s Wharf and the infamous Alcatraz Island, there are countless landmarks just begging to get the Fallout makeover in San Francisco, but its most Fallout-esque feature is not a physical fixture of the city, but a sordid chapter of its past.
San Francisco’s Operation Sea-Spray Explained
In September 1950, the U.S. Navy conducted what would go on to be known as Operation Sea-Spray, a covert experiment on biological warfare, where various bacteria were sprayed over an unsuspecting Bay Area. The plan was to create a simulated bio-terror attack with harmless agents, so that the breadth of any potential catastrophe could be studied, giving crucial data to mitigate or repel an actual attack. As it turned out, however, the bacteria were not quite as harmless as advertised; the bacteria were sprayed at volume enough to give all the city’s 800,000 inhabitants a potent dose, and several residents were stricken with an exceedingly rare form of urinary tract infection as a result.
Macabre experiments on an unassuming populace is a hallmark of Vault-Tec Industries, and medical experiment-spurred mutations are right on brand for Fallout enemy design. This makes Operation Sea-Spray almost too perfect a fit for utilizing and satirizing in Fallout 5.
Operation Sea-Spray Could Fit Right Into Fallout’s Historical Fiction Traditions
It would not be the first time Fallout had incorporated real events and prognostications in the games. Its nuclear-powered cars are based on the Ford Nucleon concept art, and its various robots like Mr. Handy and Liberty Prime are heavily inspired from 1950’s sci-fi books and movies. Every Fallout setting has wasteland versions of real locations, as well as a respect for its regional histories, especially between the years of 1940-1960. All of which furthers the case that Operation Sea-Spray would make a fantastic bit of American history to lambast in Fallout 5.
Fallout 5 Remains Far on the Horizon
Even with the means and motivation to prioritize Fallout 5, it is still slated behind a game that will not release until 2026 at the absolute earliest. With no official press announcements, teaser trailer, or even so much as a title banner, fans can only imagine how Fallout 5 will look and play. The tepid response to Starfield highlighted a trademark design beginning to show its age, and Bethesda will undoubtedly be adapting feedback and innovating on its approaches to storytelling and world-building. By the time Fallout 5 releases, it could be a massive departure from the Bethesda RPG style, but only time will tell.