Everyone knows that Rockstar’s GTA 6 is going to be an enormous hit upon launch in November this year, but just how big are we talking? A new report from research firm Newzoo makes several stratospheric predictions, led by an estimation that it could earn between $3.3 billion – $5.2 billion in global sales after just its first week. That is a big band, of course, but even on the low end, that would bigger than GTA 5, which made $1 billion after 72 hours back in 2013.
Newzoo said it’s basing this on its proprietary Newzoo Game Performance Monitor. The bullish outlook is based in part on strong preorder numbers, with Newzoo estimating that GTA 6 digital spending came to $180 million in the final week of June in the US and the five largest European markets (England, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain).
“To convert that into a global estimate, we can use GTA 5’s lifetime console player distribution: around 69% of GTA 5’s lifetime console players sit within those six markets,” it said. “Applying that ratio bumps the $180 million regional figure to a global estimate of approximately $260 million for the first week.”
Newzoo said GTA 6 falls within the definition of a “Proven Sequel,” and those kinds of games have stronger sales curves, historical data shows–and it’s expected to be no different for GTA 6. A “Proven Sequel” kind of game is a “massively anticipated” entry in an established series, based on a “tried and tested formula,” with a dedicated audience who aren’t going to wait for reviews or a price drop to buy in, Newzoo said.
The firm estimated that preorder numbers for GTA 6 amount to about 5.8% of cumulative sales during launch week. So if first-week preorder numbers reached $260 million, that implies $4.5 billion in sales by launch week, Newzoo said. This works out to 51 million copies sold at an “assumed” $88 average selling point.
Even if GTA 6 were to fall into Newzoo’s “Sequel with Performance Uncertainty” bucket for sales projections, the game would still have an exceptional launch with $3.3 billion in sales volume during its first week and 37 million units sold.
Arguably, the more front-loaded curve is likelier. But whichever you find more persuasive, it doesn t change
the core conclusion: GTA 6 is on pace to outperform forecasts. As a conservative check, the Sequel
with Performance Uncertainty curve books about 3.8% of revenue in week one, versus ~5.8% for the Proven
Sequel curve. If we instead assume GTA 6 front-loads far harder at ~8%, that produces $3.3 billion in
cumulative sales by week one (around 37 million units)… an exceptional result.
Newzoo also pushed back against the unconfirmed reports that GTA 6 drove more than $1 billion in preorder revenue over its first three weeks after preorders opened on June 25. “This is absurd,” the company said.
Rockstar owner Take-Two has not announced any preorder sales data for GTA 6, but it’s possible the company provides an update in August at its next earnings briefing.
GTA 6 launches on November 19 for PS5 and Xbox Series X|S. The game is selling for $80 for its standard edition or $100 for a premium edition that also comes with numerous other digital extras, while all preorders include an auto-renewing membership to something you might not want. The game is a digital-exclusive, with no discs available, not even with the physical copies being sold at retailers.