GTA 6 Projected to Break Biggest Game Launch Record 4 Times Over

Grand Theft Auto 6 may sell over 45 million units on day one, according to a new investment report. The lofty figure suggests that GTA 6 could more than quadruple the current world record for launch-day video game sales.

In 2018, GTA 5 officially became the most profitable entertainment product of all time. The long-awaited sixth entry in the franchise is expected to surpass that milestone and many other records set by its predecessor, though the extent of its expected outperformance remains a subject of considerable debate among industry analysts.

Grand Theft Auto 6 Sales Potential Sparks Interesting Debate

The anticipated launch of GTA 6 is closer than ever, and its impending release prompts curious discussion about its financial implications.

Piper Sandler Says GTA 6 Could Sell Over 45 Million Units at Launch

A recent report from private investment bank Piper Sandler offered one of the loftiest predictions about the game’s early performance to date, projecting that GTA 6 could surpass 45 million launch sales. For context, GTA 5 holds the current Guinness World Record for the best-selling video game in 24 hours, with 11.21 million copies sold. Piper Sandler’s projection thus puts its successor on pace to break that 2013 record more than four times over.

The mid-June 2026 report saw Piper Sandler maintain its “Overweight” rating on Take-Two Interactive stock. The label indicates that the investment bank expects the gaming giant to outperform the broader video game industry over the next six to 12 months. Piper Sandler cited the early revenue-making potential of GTA 6 as the key reason for maintaining the rating, though it was not the only factor. The firm’s analysts also addressed previously voiced concerns that the much-anticipated game could cannibalize the rest of Take-Two’s business, particularly its mobile unit. The investment bank largely dismissed those concerns, noting that the publisher’s mobile gaming business has little overlap with its console operations.

Biggest Confirmed Day-One Video Game Unit Sales of All Time

#	Game	Launch Sales	Release
1	Grand Theft Auto 5	11.21 million	Sep 17, 2013
2	Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3	6.5 million	Nov 10, 2023
3	Call of Duty: Black Ops	5.6 million	Nov 9, 2010
4	Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2	4.7 million	Nov 10, 2009
5	Grand Theft Auto 4	3.6 million	Apr 29, 2009

While most of the best-selling video games of all time have well-established commercial milestones, day-one sales are not a well-documented metric. After GTA 5, the biggest confirmed day-one launch in video game history belongs to Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3, with 6.5 million copies sold. However, several major releases likely surpassed Modern Warfare 3 in first-day sales without setting clean, confirmed day-one records. These include Black Myth: Wukong, Pokemon Scarlet and Violet, and The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom. All three were previously announced as having surpassed 10 million sales in their first three days on the market, without receiving a more detailed breakdown. Likewise, Cyberpunk 2077 reportedly had 8 million pre-orders, but calculating its day-one sales is complicated by the significant volume of refunds for its PS4 and Xbox One versions.

Find the odd one out before the timer hits zero.

Easy (15s)Medium (10s)Hard (5s)Permadeath (5s)

Regardless of its exact day-one sales, GTA 6 is widely expected to become the biggest video game launch of all time by a significant margin. Although more than a year has passed since its second trailer, the extended promotional lull may not last for much longer. Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick has repeatedly said that GTA 6 marketing will fully begin in summer 2026, while reiterating the game’s November 19 release date.