Gears of War: E-Day is launching into Xbox Game Pass, and because of that, the majority of the game’s moneymaking potential will be cannibalized by its inclusion on the service. That’s according to Rhys Elliott of Alinea Analytics, who released a report today that covers this, the game’s initial sales on Steam, and the possibility of a PlayStation 5 port sometime down the road.
According to Elliott, E-Day has surpassed 120,000 copies sold on Steam at this point, generating more than $7 million in revenue. The game arrives on October 6, but people who pay more can jump in starting October 1. For more, check out the official global launch times for E-Day.
Elliott’s data showed that E-Day has already sold more than 2X what Halo: Campaign Evolved did over a similar period of time. With 120,000 sales on Steam already, E-Day is unlikely to hit 1 million copies on the platform ever, Elliott said.
Additionally, he said “most” of the revenue from the Xbox version will be “eaten up by Game Pass. The game’s inclusion on Game Pass might also encourage some people to sign up, so sales alone do not tell the whole story.
In any event, Microsoft has already decided to pull some key titles out of Game Pass, presumably due to lost revenue. Microsoft’s Activision division no longer puts new Call of Duty games into Game Pass at launch, for example, with this October’s Modern Warfare 4 not coming to Game Pass until Fall 2027. Going forward, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma has said the company might opt to “window” other titles, presumably to help Microsoft make more money from direct game sales.
In 2023, Microsoft admitted that putting games into Game Pass cannibalizes full-game sales. At the same time, a game coming to Game Pass can actually help improve sales in some scenarios.
Microsoft made a big bet on Xbox Game Pass, spending billions of dollars to buy up studios with the aim of funneling content to the service to encourage people to sign up. New Xbox CEO Asha Sharma has said Microsoft’s bet on Game Pass did not work out. “Our core business weakened, and we added more teams, more investment, and more time, hoping for a better outcome,” she said.
Elliott previously said Gears of War: E-Day (along with Clockwork Revolution) are being sent out to die due to their exclusivity to Xbox. They are also coming to PC, but not PS5.
Elliott told GameSpot that Microsoft will never succeed in the console space and promising fans exclusive games to help drive console sales is not going to make a difference.
“Console as we know it is over for Xbox–and has been for a while. There’s no turning that ship. But they still need to pretend to care until they’ve transitioned to pastures where they can return to growth (if they succeed),” he said.
“A Gears console exclusive does not shift meaningful numbers of Series X units. Exclusivity as a hardware-driver is over for them, because the install base it would drive simply isn’t responsive enough to justify the cost of building hardware at a 5x component premium. And those games are on Steam anyway,” he added.
Elliott went on to say that Gears of War: E-Day and Clockwork Revolution are “sacrificial lambs for hearts-and-minds, not economics.”
Also in the report, Elliott addressed the rumor that Microsoft canceled a PS5 port of E-Day. He said Microsoft should not have done this, as bringing the game to PS5 would have “added some much-needed extra revenue.”
While E-Day might not be coming to PS5 at launch, Elliott said he foresees a port coming to market “at some point.”
There was obvious evidence of a PS5 edition of E-Day. However, Microsoft denied that it canceled a PS5 version at the last minute, but did not deny its existence.
Another strange wrinkle to the story is that Microsoft’s Aaron Greenberg has said E-Day is not a timed-exclusive for Xbox. However, Greenberg said in 2021 that Starfield was not a timed-exclusive on Xbox, but then it did come to PS5, so it’s hard to believe some of the things that Microsoft says about its release plans.
