PlayStation sure does like a good pattern, but the company is also smart enough to change every so often. This makes it less predictable, unless PlayStation wants it to be predictable (like the PS Plus reveal and release date pattern). Sometimes there’s even a clear pattern to how PlayStation chooses games to populate PS Plus with, and another circumstance where this manifests is in its State of Play announcements.
At one point in time, State of Plays followed a very specific pattern: announcement on Tuesday, event on Thursday of any given week. There were a few exceptions to this rule, but there were very few exceptions to the 2-day gap. This pattern gave way a few years ago, but when looking at the past two years of State of Plays, a new pattern emerges. This is important as rumors surrounding a new PS Plus kick off because the question becomes: Does PlayStation’s detailed announcement history support a State of Play taking place on April 16? The data says to watch April 15, at the very least.
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Insider Nate the Hate has heard April 16 kicked around as a potential date for the next State of Play. For those unfamiliar, Nate the Hate is considered a highly reliable leaker, often focused on Nintendo announcements (as opposed to PlayStation ones). His track record gives many of his Nintendo teases weight, such as the suggestion that a Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time remake is coming to Nintendo Switch 2 this year. However, all rumors and leaks should be taken with a grain of salt, regardless of the source, until otherwise confirmed in all scenarios. Double that when Nate the Hate himself has also made it clear he has not been able to confirm this date, nor has he been able to confirm the content of the State of Play, but he does claim that a third-party focus sounds more likely.
All that is what it is, but how likely is the date of April 16 in and of itself? Looking at the patterns dating back to 2024 supports it more than it hurts it.
State of Play Announcement Dates Follow a Clear Pattern
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State of Play on January 31, 2024 — WEDNESDAY
- Announced: January 29 (Monday)
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Special State of Play (Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth) on February 6, 2024 — SATURDAY
- Announced: January 31 (Wednesday)
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State of Play on May 30, 2024 — THURSDAY
- Announced: May 29 (Wednesday)
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State of Play on September 24, 2024 — TUESDAY
- Announced: September 23 (Monday)
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State of Play on February 12, 2025 — WEDNESDAY
- Announced: February 11 (Tuesday)
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Special State of Play (Borderlands 4) on April 30, 2025 — WEDNESDAY
- Announced: April 29 (Tuesday)
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State of Play on June 4, 2025 — WEDNESDAY
- Announced: June 3 (Tuesday)
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Special State of Play (Ghost of Yotei) on July 10, 2025 — THURSDAY
- Announced: July 8 (Tuesday)
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Special State of Play (007 First Light) on September 3, 2025 — WEDNESDAY
- Announced: September 1 (Monday)
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State of Play on September 24, 2025 — WEDNESDAY
- Announced: September 23 (Tuesday)
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State of Play Japan on November 11, 2025 — TUESDAY
- Announced: November 10 (Monday)
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State of Play on February 12, 2026 — THURSDAY
- Announced: February 9 (Monday)
State of Plays Happen on Wednesday More Than Thursday, But It’s The Second Most Common
Except for the special Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth State of Play in 2024, every State of Play over the past two or so years has taken place on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday. Only 2 of them took place on a Tuesday, while 6 happened on a Wednesday and 3 happened on a Thursday. Thursday used to be the more common day, but over time it slipped toward Wednesday. That does not rule out a Thursday by any means. It’s even possible that 2026 signals a new pattern, or more specifically, shifting back toward a Thursday-oriented State of Play schedule. That said, the data says Thursday is possible even if Wednesday is more supported right now.
If the classic pattern holds, then PlayStation fans may receive an announcement on April 14 that confirms a State of Play for April 15, but that only relies on raw data and not what’s happening in the industry. If April 16 is truly the date, however, April 15 remains important: fans will likely know if a State of Play is happening on April 15, one way or another. Either it’s happening, or the announcement happens. That’s because one of the more reliable patterns is the shift away from a 2-day gap and a heavier reliance on a 1-day gap.
Across 12 States of Plays over the past two years, seven State of Plays had 1-day gaps (announced one day, happened the next), three had 2-day gaps (announced one day, skipped a day, happened the next), and only two had 3-day gaps (extending that same structure). Of these, it’s worth noting that the extended gaps are almost entirely Special State of Play events. The 2-day gaps were for dedicated State of Plays to Ghost of Yotei and 007: First Light, with the very first one of 2024 being the only normal State of Play with a 2-day gap.
The 3-day gap is even easier to justify as an exception to the rule. The first one was for a dedicated Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth State of Play, and the last one (the most recent State of Play) was likely because it was the longest State of Plays in years. Cut out the special State of Plays, and it essentially becomes seven 1-day gaps to one 2-day gap.
Balance the critic averages
Balance the critic averages
Easy (6)Medium (8)Hard (10)
PlayStation’s Announcement Gap Pattern Means April 15 is Important
The Likeliest Outcome
- State of Play Announcement on April 15
- State of Play Takes Place on April 16
As such, if a State of Play is indeed happening next week, then April 15 is the date to watch for confirmation. It could even come sooner, but based on the rumors and the data, fans will know one way or another on April 15.
