On February 28, the United States and Israel began bombing Iran, claiming the lives of more than 1,000 civilians. Today, users on Polymarket, the crypto-fueled trading and prediction market platform, started betting on when the next nuclear bomb will drop.
If you’re wondering how these two things are related, several anonymous betters on Polymarket just happened to correctly predict exactly when Iran would be struck on February 28. Polymarket courageously defended its choice to let its users bet on the bombings in an editorial note on the platform, stating that the “ability” to wager on events such as these “is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times.”
Today, as spotted by David Sirota in a post on Bluesky, Polymarket decided to host a new wager titled “Nuclear weapon detonation by…?” The bet, which featured the “Geopolitcal” and “Ukraine” tags, listed three dates; March 31, June 30, and “Before 2027.” “This market will resolve to “Yes” if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between December 17, 2025 ET, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.”
However, in the time between Sirota’s post and now, Polymarket has clearly had a change of heart. While you can still view an archival page of the now-delisted wager, attempting to visit the page on Polymarket’s site will now instead throw up a generic message stating that “this event has been archived.” Phew. Close one, Polymarket. You almost looked like the bad guys for a second there!
As of this writing, there’s been no official statement made by Polymarket regarding its decision to remove the bet from the website. If you’re that desperate to gamble on the needless loss of life, though, you can throw your lot in with the $7,457,007 worth of bets listed on the wager “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” instead.