There is no denying that the Switch 2 is crushing it. Its sales in the US are pacing 45% ahead of the original Switch over its first four months and most consoles in history. No data exists in a vacuum, though, and Switch 2 sales came in weaker than expected in certain overseas markets for the latest quarter, Nintendo said in February. Now, a report from Bloomberg claimed Nintendo is cutting Switch 2 production by 30% after weaker-than-expected demand during the holidays.
At the same time, the reporting said Nintendo remained on track to ship its forecasted 19 million Switch 2 units by the end of March, and in fact, the system is expected to reach the 20 million units that analysts are projecting. Nintendo, like other companies, is known to post intentionally conservative estimates in part so it can generate positive headlines when it exceeds them. As of December 31, Nintendo had sold 17.37 million Switch 2 consoles, so the 19 million forecast seems to be certainly on track.
These data points seem at odds with each other–Switch 2 is one of the fastest-selling systems ever, yet the production cut and the performance of Nintendo’s stock over the last six months paint a different picture. So what’s going on?
Historical sales comparisons
According to Circana’s Retail Tracking Service, the Switch 2 is pacing well ahead of not just Nintendo’s other platforms, but all but one system it’s ever tracked (it’s second to Game Boy Advance). Here is how far ahead the Switch 2 is compared to other consoles through their first nine months:
- PS5 +29%
- PS4 +30%
- Wii +34%
- Switch +45%
- PS2 +56%
- Xbox One +61%
- Xbox Series X|S +73%
- 3DS +96%
- Xbox 360 +120%
- GameCube +139%
- Wii U +302%
Switch 2 is a “staggering success,” but key concerns going forward
Circana’s Mat Piscatella told GameSpot that the current macroeconomic conditions that people face today are creating a “massive challenge” not just for video games, but for all categories of discretionary spending. Against this backdrop, the fact that the Switch 2 is pacing 45% ahead of the Switch 1 in the US on a time-aligned basis makes for a “staggering success,” he said.
“If conditions continue to deteriorate the challenges will only compound. But this is not just a Nintendo issue. It’s about everyone and everything,” he said.
Gas and grocery prices are going up, along with home energy costs and countless other things that people need on a daily basis. Amidst this trend, the percentage of game console purchasers in the US with household incomes of $100,000 or more is increasing. For Q4 2025, 53% of video game hardware purchasing came from households bringing in more than $100,000 annually, up from 40% in Q1 2022.
“So, the average household buying a new unit of video game hardware has been becoming more affluent, on average, over time. This goes hand in hand with a jump in the average price of video game hardware,” Piscatella said. “According to Circana’s Retail Tracking Service, the average price paid for a new unit of video game hardware in the US was $247 in 2019. By 2025 that average price has jumped to $452.”
While gas and grocery prices disproportionately impact less-affluent consumers, high-income households are beginning to feel the squeeze as well, Piscatella pointed out.
Switch 2 sales surged recently due to the launch of the Pokemon spin-off Pokopia, Niko Partners analyst Daniel Ahmad pointed out. He added that the Switch 2 will surely soon have more games that help Switch 2 units fly off the shelves. After all, Nintendo fans are still waiting for the first new 3D Mario game for the Switch 2. The fact that Fox McCloud will be in The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, meanwhile, is prompting theories that Nintendo might have a new Smash Bros. game to reveal soon. Nintendo historically releases new entries in all of its main franchises for each new console, so none of this would be unexpected. (More on this later).
30% reduction in context
If Bloomberg’s reporting is accurate and Nintendo is indeed slashing Switch 2 production by 30% this quarter, down from 6 million to 4 million units, that is still an “extremely high” production level for Q1, Ahmad said. After all, the Switch 2 is the fastest-selling console of all time worldwide, and the No. 2 fastest-selling gaming platform in the US, only behind the Game Boy Advance. Ahmad said it’s reasonable to believe Nintendo could have overestimated demand for the Switch 2 in late 2025 and 2026 due to the possible impacts of the so-called RAMageddon situation, ongoing tariffs, and the war in Iran.
Rhys Elliott of Alinea Analytics told GameSpot that the 30% production cut, if it’s real, is a “calculated move toward inventory stabilization” as opposed to a reason to believe the Switch 2 is failing to meet expectations.
“While Nintendo is maintaining its fiscal year shipment goal, they’re shifting from a launch surge manufacturing phase to one that accounts for the current post-holiday lull in the West. This lull was a content problem more than anything else,” Elliott said. “The original Switch had Breath of the Wild at launch, Mario Kart a month later, and Mario Odyssey six months in. By comparison, the Switch 2 roadmap has been less robust. There was Mario Kart World, of course. But while Donkey Kong Bananza was a critical darling, it simply does not possess the same mass-market gravity as a mainline Mario title.”
The Switch 2 may have recently got a sales jolt from Pokemon Pokopia, but the first year of the Switch 2 has been relatively slow for major first-party releases. Pokopia, too, is a Pokemon spin-off and not a new mainline game, and it’s also available for the Switch 1. There was also Metroid Prime 4: Beyond, the long-awaited game that came out in 2025, but it wasn’t exactly a juggernaut system-seller. Nintendo has yet to release brand-new Mario and Zelda games for the Switch 2, and those would seemingly be more capable of helping move systems for Nintendo.
Elliott went on to theorize that Nintendo took a different approach with Switch 2 stock levels compared to the Switch 1, which faced huge stock shortages. Nintendo ramped up production for the Switch 2, he said, to help ensure it could meet peak holiday demand “without losing sales to scalpers.” This was previously alluded to when former Nintendo of America president Doug Bowser said Nintendo already had Switch 2 units in the US as of April 2025, some two months before the console launch in June of that year.
By Nintendo’s own admission, Switch 2 sales were lower than what the company modeled for regions outside the US. With Switch 2 units now easy to find most anywhere, Elliott said Nintendo is probably slowing down production to avoid “high storage costs and the potential for stagnant stock that plagues manufacturers” during the historically quieter Q1 period.
The Switch 2 met expectations in Japan, meanwhile, in part because Pokemon Legends: Z-A and Kirby Air Riders have a “unique level of cultural dominance” in the island nation, Elliott said.
“The West, meanwhile, lacked that same heavy-hitter momentum during the critical holiday window,” he explained. The Switch 2 has a Japan-only model that is less expensive, and this may have also helped Switch 2 sales put up solid numbers in Nintendo’s home country.
RAMageddon and a possible Switch 2 price hike
This Switch 2 is selling fast and pacing ahead of the Switch 1, but something that could slow the pace is a price hike. In February this year, Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa said the recent rise in memory prices did not negatively impact the Switch 2’s profitability in the latest quarter, or the current one. However, if the costs keep going up, Nintendo might pass that along to consumers in the form of a price hike.
Elliott said a Switch 2 price hike is certainly possible, but he believes a more likely approach would be for Nintendo to use “indirect price increase” to hold margins. Raising the price to $450 for the base model would be a “PR disaster” for a console in its second year, Elliott said. Given that, he theorized a more likely scenario would be for Nintendo to create a new kind of Switch 2 bundle with a game or an exclusive cosmetic packed in. Nintendo has already raised prices on accessories and other items, and, as mentioned, the company is not ruling out a Switch 2 price hike. These issues are not only affecting Nintendo, as Microsoft and Sony have raised console prices, while the popular Nex Playground is also going up in price. Beyond these moves, Nintendo just recently announced that it’s rolling out a new pricing strategy for games to make digital and physical versions of the same game cost different prices. Many are seeing this as Nintendo attempting to push players to the more margin-rich digital version of a given game.
He said historical data suggests consumers may balk at a $50 price increase to a base console, but would readily pay that much more for a bundle with extra sweeteners, or a new hardware revision that looks like a major upgrade but doesn’t actually cost that much more to produce. “The Switch OLED proved this model by commanding a higher price despite only marginal increases in part costs. This allows Nintendo to offset the pressures of RAMageddon and potential tariffs without the sticker shock that kills momentum,” he said.
How The Super Mario Galaxy Movie could shake things up
The Switch 2 is approaching its second year, and while the sales trajectory looks solid, Elliott said Nintendo needs to deliver some kind of “catalyst” to spur the casual market to buying in. The fact that the Switch 2 achieved the record of the fastest-selling console may be explained by core gamers showing up, but Year 2 will be a bigger test, Elliott said, and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie could help.
The Super Mario Bros. Movie in 2023 helped boost Switch 1 game sales and likely consoles, too, and Elliott said the Galaxy movie affords Nintendo the “perfect window” to increase Switch 2 sales. Elliott added that Nintendo is potentially leaving Switch 2 hardware sales on the table by not having a brand-new 3D Mario game available near the release of the movie.
Such a game would be the “ultimate conversion tool” to help drive consumers to buy a Switch 2, he said. Nintendo doesn’t have nothing, however, as the re-release of Super Mario Bros. Wonder’s Switch 2 edition (March 26) could be appealing to people walking out of the theater and looking for a Mario game. Then there’s the Super Mario Galaxy 1+2 re-release that could catch people’s eye after seeing the film.
“A full 3D Mario would’ve been better, though. These transmedia releases need to be better timed,” he said.
The long and short of the matter here is that the Switch 2 is doing great in the market, but these are unprecedented times when it comes to the macroeconomic environment. As Piscatella told us, “This is not just a Nintendo issue. It’s about everyone and everything.”
