Rockstar’s Grand Theft Auto 6 launches on November 19, and it’s expected to be a gigantic commercial success, but just how big will the launch be? Investor’s Business Daily compiled data from a series of analyst reports about the game and its owner, Take-Two, and the consensus is that it’s going to be a juggernaut.
In terms of sales, Brian Pitz of BMO Capital Markets said GTA 6 could sell 55 million copies during Take-Two’s fiscal 2027, which ends on March 31, 2027. He said the game could sell 45 million units alone during the game’s launch quarter, which is well ahead of the estimates of 34.2 million that IBD compiled.
“This is an outlier in every respect,” Circana’s Mat Piscatella told the publication. “There have been some big game launches in the past, but nothing quite at this scale, not only in terms of the investment, but in terms of the anticipation. It’s in its own league.”
GTA 6 is launching with an $80 standard edition and a $100 Ultimate Edition. Raymond James analyst Andrew Marok said he’s forecasting 50 million unit sales for the fiscal year 2027, and that the blended average selling price will be close to $90. According to Sensor Tower, early data suggested preorders were skewing toward the $100 edition, but by launch, it could be around 50/50.
Matthew Cost of Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, said if GTA 6 does indeed have strong sales out of the gate, this could create a “large potential audience” for the next iteration of GTA Online. Rockstar has not said anything yet about an online mode for GTA 6, but given the huge success of GTA Online for GTA 5, it’s all but guaranteed that GTA 6 will incorporate online multiplayer as well.
Cost said this is a big deal for investors and may represent “the next major catalyst” for Take-Two’s stock price. Take-Two’s share price is down about 10% so far in 2026, and currently trades around $228/share..
A new version of GTA Online for GTA 6 would no doubt feature microtransactions and other ways to spend more money, and that could be frustrating for fans but great news for investors who want to see bigger returns.
D.A. Davidson analyst Wyatt Swanson said Take-Two’s share price could surge to $300 in part because he believes Rockstar will release a PC edition of GTA 6 and usher in GTA Online 2.0. These releases would “enable structurally higher margins” for Take-Two, he said.
According to Sensor Tower, GTA 6 has already sold 12 million copies and generated $1.2 billion in revenue. GTA 5, meanwhile, took 72 hours to clear $1 billion in revenue–GTA 6 reached that a week before release, apparently.
GTA 6 launches on November 19 for PS5 and Xbox Series X|S.
